This content has been reviewed and edited by an Investment Advisor Representative working for Global Predictions, an SEC-registered Investment Advisor.

According to a 2023 Pew Research Center report, 75% of U.S. adults who have heard of crypto say they’re not confident it’s safe or reliable. Despite that skepticism, crypto markets saw over $2 trillion in volume last year. Many investors wonder: is this a misunderstood innovation—or just a slot machine wrapped in code?

Key Takeaways

• Cryptocurrencies often trade more like speculative assets than productive investments.
• Volatility, hype cycles, and lack of fundamentals make valuation difficult.
• Crypto can play a role in diversified portfolios, but allocation should match risk tolerance.
• Behavioral traps—like FOMO and overconfidence—are especially acute in this space.
• Blockchain technology may have long-term potential, but not all tokens offer lasting value.

Where Is the Value, Exactly?

Traditional investments—like stocks or bonds—are typically valued based on future earnings, dividends, or interest payments. Crypto assets, by contrast, rarely offer cash flows. Bitcoin doesn’t produce income. Most tokens don’t represent ownership or claims on profits.

Some argue that crypto is like gold: valuable because others agree it is. But while gold has centuries of history and physical scarcity, many crypto assets can be created with code. That doesn’t make them worthless—but it means their value is more dependent on belief and network adoption than fundamentals.

A CoinGecko report finds that over 50% of tokens listed on its DEX tracker have failed in the past five years, underscoring high attrition in crypto projects. This raises a simple but important question: if the average asset disappears, is the category stable enough to build wealth?

Hypothetical: Riding a 5x Crypto Surge

Imagine a young investor who puts $5,000 into a trending token that climbs 500% over 12 months. On paper, they’ve grown their stake to $30,000. But when they try to sell, liquidity thins out. Prices slip. And taxes on short-term capital gains eat into the profit.

This scenario illustrates two issues: thin markets and tax drag. Many smaller tokens trade on volatile, lightly regulated exchanges. Slippage and spreads widen during volatility. Gains may be real—but harder to capture than they appear.

So what? Returns can evaporate quickly without clear exit strategies or diversification. Hype can create headline growth, but it’s behavior—not just returns—that determines real outcomes.

What Makes It Look Like Gambling?

Gambling isn’t just betting—it’s risk without a reliable edge. Critics argue crypto resembles this because:

• There’s no intrinsic value or yield from most tokens.
• Price movements are often driven by hype, not fundamentals.
• Regulatory clarity remains limited, increasing risk of fraud or manipulation.
• Short-term behavior dominates, with many investors trading on momentum or social trends.

By mid-2022, Dogecoin was down roughly 88% from its May 2021 peak. No major earnings report or innovation drove that spike—just memes and tweets.

However, not all crypto is created equal. Bitcoin and Ethereum have established longer track records and broader institutional interest. Some investors view them as speculative stores of value or building blocks of new digital infrastructure.

Still, volatility remains extreme. BTC/USDT is trading over 60% removed from its 2021 all-time high, reflecting heavy losses amid Fed rate hikes.

Behavioral Risk: Fear, FOMO, and Confirmation Bias

Crypto’s wild price swings trigger powerful behavioral reactions:

• FOMO (fear of missing out) during rallies.
• Panic selling during downturns.
• Overconfidence after big gains.
• Confirmation bias in online communities.

Platforms like Reddit and X (formerly Twitter) can create echo chambers. Investors may downplay risks or overestimate long-term potential. This emotional volatility amplifies price volatility—creating a feedback loop of hype and fear.

As with meme stocks, the line between community and speculation can blur. Many people believe in the technology—but still get caught in short-term bets.

Can Crypto Fit in a Portfolio?

Some investors include crypto as a small, speculative slice—typically 1–5%—of a diversified portfolio. This exposure may help capture upside while containing risk.

Historically, Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 has hovered near 0.08, but in 2022 both fell sharply—stocks by 18% and Bitcoin by over 60%—showing that resilience, not novelty, underpins true diversification.

As always, time horizon and risk appetite matter. Crypto may be better suited for investors who can tolerate large swings, extended drawdowns, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty.

Digital assets aren’t inherently bad—but many behave more like lottery tickets than investments. A good rule of thumb? If an asset’s future depends mostly on mass belief and trading volume, it probably belongs in the speculative bucket.

FAQs

Q: Is crypto a good inflation hedge?

A: While some promote Bitcoin as "digital gold," its price has often moved with tech stocks—not opposite inflation.

Q: Can I earn income from crypto?

A: Some tokens offer staking or yield, but these involve smart contract risks and potential regulatory scrutiny.

Q: What percent of my portfolio should be in crypto?

A: Some investors allocate 1–5% as a speculative position. Suitability depends on risk tolerance and goals.

Q: Is blockchain different from crypto?

A: Yes. Blockchain is the underlying technology; not all blockchains require or use tradable tokens.

Q: How is crypto taxed in the U.S.?

A: The IRS treats crypto as property. Selling or trading it can trigger capital gains taxes, even for small purchases.